Celta de Vigo vs Juventus: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo · updated 2026-10-09
Celta de Vigo host Juventus in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Abanca-Balaídos. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Juventus slight favourites at 40%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 31% and expects about 2.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 0.95, Juventus 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 36% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger
Moneyball Scout picks Francisco Conceição as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 25).
- Accurate crosses: 1.98 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Shots: 2.97 per 90 minutes, better than 73% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.74 per 90 minutes, better than 72% of wingers
Celta de Vigo concede only 0.9 goals a match this season (1.25 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a classic winger like Francisco Conceição.
Scout's notes: Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Celta de Vigo | Per match this season | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 0.61 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 3.7 | On target | 5.8 |
| 52.4 | Possession % | 56.0 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Celta de Vigo in its domestic league; Juventus in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Miguel Román midfielder · rating 7.25 · 7 apps
- Hugo González forward · rating 7.17 · 4 apps
- Carl Starfelt defender · rating 7.10 · 3 apps
Juventus
- Nico González midfielder · rating 7.40 · 4 apps
- Bremer defender · rating 7.37 · 5 apps
- Douglas Luiz midfielder · rating 7.30 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.