Celtic vs Celta de Vigo: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Celtic Park, Glasgow · updated 2026-10-09
Celtic host Celta de Vigo in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Celtic Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Celta de Vigo slight favourites at 39%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celtic 1.30, Celta de Vigo 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda, 24 · Celta de Vigo · RB · Attacking full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Javi Rueda as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 66, defensive 44).
- Key passes: 1.44 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of full-backs
- Expected assists (est.): 0.16 per 90 minutes, better than 90% of full-backs
- Successful dribbles: 0.96 per 90 minutes, better than 80% of full-backs
Celtic score 2.0 goals a match this season from 0.86 expected: stopping them runs through Javi Rueda.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Celtic | Per match this season | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.7 |
| 58.0 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 0.5 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Celtic in its domestic league; Celta de Vigo in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Miguel Román midfielder · rating 7.25 · 7 apps
- Hugo González forward · rating 7.17 · 4 apps
- Carl Starfelt defender · rating 7.10 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.