Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb · updated 2026-10-09
Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stadion Maksimir. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Dinamo Zagreb favourites at 59%, puts the draw at 21% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.18, NEC Nijmegen 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Dinamo Zagreb | Per match this season | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.5 | On target | 4.8 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Dinamo Zagreb in its domestic league; NEC Nijmegen in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.