Inter vs Genoa Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 13
Serie A · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-11-14
Inter welcome Genoa to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Inter have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 82% of them. At home they average 3.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. Genoa have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 18% and Genoa at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter 2.33, Genoa 0.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.62 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 21.3 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.06.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Inter vs Genoa: season averages side by side
| Inter | Per match this season | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.98 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.30 |
| 21.3 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 6.9 | On target | 3.1 |
| 60.6 | Possession % | 43.4 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 55% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 7.06 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Inter
- Nicolò Barella CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Creator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Junior Messias RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 69
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 66
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.73 / 90 | 96% |
| Duels won | 6.60 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 1.62 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.72 / 90 | 81% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.72 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Duel winner, Chance creator.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter vs Genoa prediction
Inter should have more of the ball, with Genoa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Inter work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.33 for Inter and 0.79 for Genoa - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 50%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter 2-1 Genoa
Inter vs Genoa: what the numbers say
- 1. Inter win, the likeliest result 71% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.12 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Inter vs Genoa: questions and answers
When is Inter vs Genoa?
Inter vs Genoa is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 13.
Where is Inter vs Genoa played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter's home ground.
Who will win Inter vs Genoa?
Inter are the favourites: Inter 71%, draw 18%, Genoa 11%. Our prediction is Inter 2-1 Genoa.
Who is the player to watch in Inter vs Genoa?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter vs Genoa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.