Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski, Białystok · updated 2026-10-09
Jagiellonia Białystok host Anderlecht in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Anderlecht slight favourites at 37%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok 1.10, Anderlecht 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Per match this season | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.98 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 11.6 |
| 5.2 | On target | 5.4 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 2.2 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.