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Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski, Białystok · updated 2026-10-09

Jagiellonia Białystok host Ararat-Armenia in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Jagiellonia Białystok favourites at 52%, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.5 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Jagiellonia Białystok52%fair odds 1.92
Draw27%fair odds 3.71
Ararat-Armenia21%fair odds 4.78

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

Jagiellonia BiałystokPer match this seasonArarat-Armenia
5Matches3
2.0Goals scored1.0
1.0Goals conceded1.7
0.43Expected goals (xG)0.89
10.4Shots8.0
5.2On target2.0
43.8Possession %44.0
20%Clean sheets %33%
80%Both teams scored %67%
2.2Corners3.0
1.6Yellow cards2.0
6.53Average rating6.52

Averages per match from Sportmonks.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.