Juventus vs Rennes: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Juventus Stadium, Torino · updated 2026-10-09
Juventus host Rennes in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Juventus Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Juventus clear favourites at 61%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Juventus 2.08, Rennes 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger
Moneyball Scout picks Francisco Conceição as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 25).
- Accurate crosses: 1.98 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Shots: 2.97 per 90 minutes, better than 73% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.74 per 90 minutes, better than 72% of wingers
Rennes concede 1.8 goals a match this season (2.04 expected), more than the league's average: the space a classic winger like Francisco Conceição lives on.
Scout's notes: Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Juventus | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 0.61 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 5.8 | On target | 5.4 |
| 56.0 | Possession % | 51.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 8.6 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Juventus in its domestic league; Rennes in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Juventus
- Nico González midfielder · rating 7.40 · 4 apps
- Bremer defender · rating 7.37 · 5 apps
- Douglas Luiz midfielder · rating 7.30 · 5 apps
Rennes
- Anthony Rouault defender · rating 7.31 · 2 apps
- Valentin Rongier midfielder · rating 7.30 · 5 apps
- Estéban Lepaul forward · rating 7.20 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.