Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Friday 30 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre · updated 2026-10-16
Le Havre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade Océane in Le Havre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Le Havre have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Paris Saint Germain have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris Saint Germain are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Le Havre at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Havre 1.26, Paris Saint Germain 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.9).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.43 a match created, 1.09 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 21.3 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 67.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: season averages side by side
| Le Havre | Per match this season | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.43 |
| 1.58 | xG conceded | 1.09 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 21.3 |
| 4.5 | On target | 7.3 |
| 49.2 | Possession % | 67.2 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Djibril Ouziad RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Duel winner, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.50 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.66 / 90 | 91% |
| Fouls won | 2.81 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 2.81 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball, with Le Havre likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.26 for Le Havre and 1.69 for Paris Saint Germain - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Le Havre 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris Saint Germain win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: questions and answers
When is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain played?
At Stade Océane, Le Havre, Le Havre's home ground.
Who will win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Le Havre 28%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 47%. Our prediction is Le Havre 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Who is the player to watch in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.