Le Mans vs Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 10
Ligue 1 · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne · updated 2026-10-25
Le Mans welcome Monaco to Stade de La Pincenardière in Mulsanne in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Le Mans have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Monaco have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Le Mans 34%, the draw 26%, Monaco 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Mans 1.42, Monaco 1.54.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Le Mans vs Monaco: season averages side by side
| Le Mans | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 2.04 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 4.1 | On target | 4.4 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 48.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 2.7 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.67 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
Le Mans
- Louis Mafouta CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 11% of his position)
Monaco
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Paris Brunner CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63 · Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat, 24 · Le Mans · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64
Lucas Calodat, 24, plays as a wing-back for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and expected assists (est.). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 64
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 64
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.23 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 83% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.64 / 90 | 83% |
| Interceptions | 1.64 / 90 | 81% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.41 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Lucas Calodat is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Calodat's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Mans vs Monaco prediction
Monaco should have more of the ball; Le Mans go long and direct; Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.42 for Le Mans and 1.54 for Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Le Mans 1-1 Monaco
Le Mans vs Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Friday 30 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Lens Friday 30 October 2026
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Le Mans vs Monaco: questions and answers
When is Le Mans vs Monaco?
Le Mans vs Monaco is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10.
Where is Le Mans vs Monaco played?
At Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne, Le Mans's home ground.
Who will win Le Mans vs Monaco?
It is close: Le Mans 34%, draw 26%, Monaco 40%. Our prediction is Le Mans 1-1 Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in Le Mans vs Monaco?
Lucas Calodat of Le Mans: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.