Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Enea stadion, Poznań · updated 2026-10-09
Lech Poznań host Sunderland in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Enea stadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lech Poznań clear favourites at 61%, puts the draw at 20% and expects about 3.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lech Poznań 2.34, Sunderland 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Brian Brobbey as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 64, defensive 26).
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.27 xG per shot, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.66 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Big chances missed: 0.22 per 90 minutes, better than 78% of centre-forwards
Lech Poznań concede 1.2 goals a match this season, about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a poacher like Brian Brobbey.
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Lech Poznań | Per match this season | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 18.0 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 7.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 56.8 | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Sunderland in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Granit Xhaka midfielder · rating 7.45 · 5 apps
- Brian Brobbey forward · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
- Enzo Le Fée midfielder · rating 7.14 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.