Lens vs Olympique Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 10
Ligue 1 · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-10-25
Lens welcome Olympique Marseille to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Lens have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Olympique Marseille have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lens are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 22% and Olympique Marseille at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 2.10, Olympique Marseille 1.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 57.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Lens vs Olympique Marseille: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.9 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 57.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 88% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Michaël Cuisance CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 53 · Secure passer, Gets into scoring positions (top 15% of his position)
- Ismaëlo Ganiou CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 18% of his position)
Olympique Marseille
- Timothy Weah RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 77
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.49 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.55 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.16 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.49 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.49 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Olympique Marseille prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.10 for Lens and 1.59 for Olympique Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 70%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lens 3-1 Olympique Marseille
Lens vs Olympique Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 50% by the model, 3.68 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Toulouse vs Troyes Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Friday 30 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Lens Friday 30 October 2026
- Nice vs Rennes Saturday 31 October 2026
Lens vs Olympique Marseille: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Olympique Marseille?
Lens vs Olympique Marseille is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10.
Where is Lens vs Olympique Marseille played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Olympique Marseille?
Lens are the favourites: Lens 49%, draw 22%, Olympique Marseille 29%. Our prediction is Lens 3-1 Olympique Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Olympique Marseille?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Olympique Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.