Levante vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · updated 2026-10-17
Levante welcome Atlético de Madrid to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Levante have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 3.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Atlético de Madrid have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 78% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Levante at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Levante 1.17, Atlético de Madrid 1.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Levante: form and key numbers
In style Levante are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 43.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Levante vs Atlético de Madrid: season averages side by side
| Levante | Per match this season | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.99 | xG conceded | 1.07 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 17.7 |
| 4.3 | On target | 6.4 |
| 43.9 | Possession % | 59.9 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 44% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Players to watch
Levante
- Aïssa Mandi CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
- Mathew Ryan GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 53 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 21% of his position)
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 75 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
- Koke CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Baena
Álex Baena, 25 · Atlético de Madrid · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Álex Baena, 25, plays as a winger for Atlético de Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.59 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.20 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
⚠ 5 goals from only 1.3 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Álex Baena is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Álex Baena's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Levante vs Atlético de Madrid prediction
Atlético de Madrid should have more of the ball, with Levante likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Levante go long and direct; Atlético de Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.17 for Levante and 1.97 for Atlético de Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 60%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Levante 1-2 Atlético de Madrid
Levante vs Atlético de Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlético de Madrid to win 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.14 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
Levante vs Atlético de Madrid: questions and answers
When is Levante vs Atlético de Madrid?
Levante vs Atlético de Madrid is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Levante vs Atlético de Madrid played?
At Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia, Levante's home ground.
Who will win Levante vs Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: Levante 22%, draw 23%, Atlético de Madrid 55%. Our prediction is Levante 1-2 Atlético de Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Levante vs Atlético de Madrid?
Álex Baena of Atlético de Madrid: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Levante vs Atlético de Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.