Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid · updated 2026-10-10
Rayo Vallecano welcome Elche to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Rayo Vallecano have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Elche have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Rayo Vallecano are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 22% and Elche at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 2.00, Elche 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Elche: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match this season | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.0 |
| 48.7 | Possession % | 49.9 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.64 |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Long passer, Creator (top 5% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Duel winner, Creator (top 12% of his position)
Elche
- Federico Redondo DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
- Fer Niño CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66 · Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 85% |
| Shots | 3.64 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 1.53 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter, High shot volume.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction
Elche should have more of the ball; Rayo Vallecano go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.00 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.69 for Elche - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 71%. Rayo Vallecano have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche betting tips
- Tip 1: Rayo Vallecano win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 3.68 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
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- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Rayo Vallecano are the favourites: Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 22%, Elche 33%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.