Levante vs Athletic Club: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · updated 2026-10-09
Levante host Athletic Club in La Liga on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Athletic Club slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.8 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Levante 1.29, Athletic Club 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche, 36 · Athletic Club · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Yuri Berchiche as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 67, defensive 39).
- Pass accuracy: 92%, better than 98% of full-backs
- Passes: 66.70 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of full-backs
- Key passes: 1.47 per 90 minutes, better than 92% of full-backs
Levante score 1.3 goals a match this season from 1.22 expected: stopping them runs through Yuri Berchiche.
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball circulator, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Levante | Per match this season | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 3.7 | On target | 4.7 |
| 40.0 | Possession % | 52.5 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Levante
- Mathew Ryan goalkeeper · rating 7.10 · 6 apps
- Roger Brugué forward · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
- Jon Ander Olasagasti midfielder · rating 6.92 · 6 apps
Athletic Club
- Aitor Paredes defender · rating 7.22 · 4 apps
- Robert Navarro midfielder · rating 7.16 · 5 apps
- Unai Simón goalkeeper · rating 7.12 · 6 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.