Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Friday 23 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz · updated 2026-10-09
Deportivo Alavés host Málaga in La Liga on Friday 23 October 2026 at Estadio de Mendizorroza. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Deportivo Alavés clear favourites at 61%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.72, Málaga 0.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (15%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez, 24 · Deportivo Alavés · RWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Ángel Pérez as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 57, defensive 56).
- Big chances created: 1.10 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.41 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
- Accurate crosses: 1.83 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
Málaga concede 1.7 goals a match this season (1.84 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Ángel Pérez lives on.
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Deportivo Alavés | Per match this season | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.4 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 4.4 | On target | 2.0 |
| 42.1 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Deportivo Alavés
- Lucas Boyé forward · rating 7.31 · 6 apps
- Antonio Sivera goalkeeper · rating 7.26 · 7 apps
- Ángel Pérez defender · rating 7.06 · 7 apps
Málaga
- Alfonso Herrero goalkeeper · rating 6.95 · 7 apps
- Carlos Dotor midfielder · rating 6.94 · 6 apps
- Rafita Garrido defender · rating 6.87 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.