Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller · updated 2026-10-09
Lillestrøm host Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Åråsen Stadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lillestrøm favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lillestrøm 1.59, Real Sociedad 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez, 26 · Real Sociedad · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Sergio Gómez as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 41, defensive 41).
- Passes: 52.69 per 90 minutes, better than 90% of full-backs
- Key passes: 1.22 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of full-backs
- Pass accuracy: 88%, better than 88% of full-backs
Lillestrøm score 1.0 goals a match this season from 0.90 expected: stopping them runs through Sergio Gómez.
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Chance creator, Secure passer.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Lillestrøm | Per match this season | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.1 |
| 57.7 | Possession % | 49.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Real Sociedad in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Luka Sucic forward · rating 7.11 · 7 apps
- Carlos Soler midfielder · rating 7.10 · 7 apps
- Álex Remiro goalkeeper · rating 7.07 · 6 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.