Lorient vs Brest Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient · updated 2026-10-17
Lorient welcome Brest to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Lorient have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Brest have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lorient 32%, the draw 27%, Brest 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lorient 1.26, Brest 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.21 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Lorient vs Brest: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match this season | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.21 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 1.18 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 19.2 |
| 3.5 | On target | 6.3 |
| 46.7 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 2.5 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Nathaniel Adjei CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Brest
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 67 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 74
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and interceptions. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 74
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.00 / 90 | 92% |
| Interceptions | 1.84 / 90 | 88% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 88% |
| Dribbled past | 0.33 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Reads the game, Duel winner.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Brest prediction
Brest should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.26 for Lorient and 1.48 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Brest
Lorient vs Brest betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.74 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice Sunday 18 October 2026
Lorient vs Brest: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Brest?
Lorient vs Brest is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Lorient vs Brest played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Brest?
It is close: Lorient 32%, draw 27%, Brest 42%. Our prediction is Lorient 1-1 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Brest?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.