Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu · updated 2026-10-09
Olympique Lyonnais host Nice in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Groupama Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Olympique Lyonnais clear favourites at 64%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 2.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Lyonnais 1.82, Nice 0.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Ernest Nuamah as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 77, defensive 44).
- Expected goals: 0.66 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
- Shots: 4.10 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.59 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of wingers
Nice concede 1.2 goals a match this season (1.47 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a inside forward like Ernest Nuamah.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Press-resistant.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Olympique Lyonnais | Per match this season | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 0.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.01 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.0 |
| 52.4 | Possession % | 56.8 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Olympique Lyonnais
- Ernest Nuamah midfielder · rating 7.71 · 4 apps
- Corentin Tolisso midfielder · rating 7.52 · 5 apps
- Zachary Christopher Athekame defender · rating 7.35 · 5 apps
Nice
- Mohamed Amoura forward · rating 7.04 · 3 apps
- Gauthier Hein forward · rating 7.04 · 5 apps
- Sofiane Diop midfielder · rating 7.04 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.