LOSC Lille vs Lens Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Friday 30 October 2026 · 20:05 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · updated 2026-10-16
LOSC Lille welcome Lens to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:05 UTC.
LOSC Lille have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lens have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, LOSC Lille are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Lens at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LOSC Lille 1.71, Lens 1.38.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.98 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
LOSC Lille vs Lens: season averages side by side
| LOSC Lille | Per match this season | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.98 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.81 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 5.5 | On target | 6.5 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 50.5 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 50% of his position)
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 11% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 55 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 70
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.48 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected goals | 0.61 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 3.17 / 90 | 92% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
LOSC Lille vs Lens prediction
Lens should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.71 for LOSC Lille and 1.38 for Lens - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%. LOSC Lille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: LOSC Lille 2-1 Lens
LOSC Lille vs Lens betting tips
- Tip 1: LOSC Lille win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
LOSC Lille vs Lens: questions and answers
When is LOSC Lille vs Lens?
LOSC Lille vs Lens is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:05 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is LOSC Lille vs Lens played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, LOSC Lille's home ground.
Who will win LOSC Lille vs Lens?
LOSC Lille are the favourites: LOSC Lille 45%, draw 25%, Lens 31%. Our prediction is LOSC Lille 2-1 Lens.
Who is the player to watch in LOSC Lille vs Lens?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in LOSC Lille vs Lens?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.