Troyes vs Le Mans Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Troyes welcome Le Mans to Stade de l'Aube in Troyes in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Troyes have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Le Mans have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Troyes 40%, the draw 28%, Le Mans 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Troyes -0.25 at 2.00, Le Mans at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Troyes vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 0.63 | Goals | 1.38 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 49.5 | Pressure share % | 32.6 |
| 18.9 | Tackles | 16.9 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 14.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 15% of his position)
- Jérémy Le Douaron CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
Le Mans
- Lucas Bretelle DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
- Louis Mafouta CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat, 24 · Le Mans · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 66
Lucas Calodat, 24, plays as a wing-back for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 66
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 66
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.71 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 87% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.38 / 90 | 69% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.33 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Reads the game.
- What Lucas Calodat is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Calodat's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Troyes vs Le Mans prediction
Le Mans should have more of the ball; Troyes work the ball wide and cross; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.49 for Troyes and 1.51 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Troyes 1-1 Le Mans
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Troyes vs Le Mans betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.00 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Lorient Monday 26 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Monday 26 October 2026
- Marseille vs Le Havre Monday 26 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Monday 26 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Monday 26 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 31 October 2026
Troyes vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Le Mans?
Troyes vs Le Mans is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Troyes vs Le Mans played?
At Stade de l'Aube, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Le Mans?
It is close: Troyes 40%, draw 28%, Le Mans 31%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Le Mans?
Lucas Calodat of Le Mans: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.