Lorient vs Brest Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Lorient welcome Brest to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Lorient have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Brest have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lorient 39%, the draw 29%, Brest 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lorient 0 at 1.78, Brest at 2.13. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.81, under 2.07, which gives over 53%.
Lorient: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.94 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Lorient vs Brest: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.94 |
| 1.14 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 0.88 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 9.9 | Shots | 17.0 |
| 3.1 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 2.5 |
| 42.2 | Pressure share % | 53.1 |
| 14.3 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 9.3 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Lorient vs Brest: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lorient have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lorient 3, Brest 5 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Brest 2-0 Lorient (February 7th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Lorient won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Brest | 2 – 0 | Lorient |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lorient | 3 – 3 | Brest |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Montassar Talbi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 55 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Yvon Mvogo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 41% of his position)
Brest
- Bradley Locko LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom, 21 · Lorient · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 73
Arthur Avom, 21, plays as a central midfielder for Lorient in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in interceptions and long balls. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.13 / 90 | 96% |
| Long balls | 3.91 / 90 | 92% |
| Passes | 74.17 / 90 | 91% |
| Tackles | 3.20 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 83% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Long passer, Ball circulator.
- What Arthur Avom is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arthur Avom's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Brest prediction
Lorient should have more of the ball; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.21 for Lorient and 1.18 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Brest
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lorient vs Brest betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.39 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Lorient Monday 26 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Monday 26 October 2026
- Marseille vs Le Havre Monday 26 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Monday 26 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Monday 26 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 31 October 2026
Lorient vs Brest: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Brest?
Lorient vs Brest is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lorient vs Brest played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Brest?
It is close: Lorient 39%, draw 29%, Brest 32%. Our prediction is Lorient 1-1 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Brest?
Arthur Avom of Lorient: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.