Nice vs Rennes Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Nice welcome Rennes to Allianz Riviera in Nice in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Nice have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rennes have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Nice 34%, the draw 26%, Rennes 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Nice +0.25 at 1.80, Rennes at 2.11. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 54.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Nice vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| Nice | Per match | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 2.25 |
| 11.4 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 6.1 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 2.3 |
| 54.2 | Pressure share % | 49.4 |
| 16.8 | Tackles | 16.6 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Nice vs Rennes: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Nice have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Nice 5, Rennes 9 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Nice 0-4 Rennes (March 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Nice won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Nice | 0 – 4 | Rennes |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Rennes | 1 – 2 | Nice |
| 10 May 2025 | Rennes | 2 – 0 | Nice |
| 3 Jan 2025 | Nice | 3 – 2 | Rennes |
Players to watch
Nice
- Xavier Mandza DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 56 · Disciplined, Long passer (top 6% of his position)
- Mohamed Abdelmonem CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
Rennes
- Ludovic Blas RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Blocks shots, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul, 26 · Rennes · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Estéban Lepaul, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Rennes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.99 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals | 1.16 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 4.64 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 90% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Estéban Lepaul is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Estéban Lepaul's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nice vs Rennes prediction
Nice should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.47 for Nice and 1.60 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Nice 1-1 Rennes
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Nice vs Rennes betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.07 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Lorient Monday 26 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Monday 26 October 2026
- Marseille vs Le Havre Monday 26 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Monday 26 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Monday 26 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 31 October 2026
Nice vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is Nice vs Rennes?
Nice vs Rennes is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Nice vs Rennes played?
At Allianz Riviera, Nice, Nice's home ground.
Who will win Nice vs Rennes?
It is close: Nice 34%, draw 26%, Rennes 40%. Our prediction is Nice 1-1 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in Nice vs Rennes?
Estéban Lepaul of Rennes: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nice vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.