Monaco vs LOSC Lille Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-11
Monaco welcome LOSC Lille to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Monaco have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. LOSC Lille have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Monaco are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 28% and LOSC Lille at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.40, LOSC Lille 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.65 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Monaco vs LOSC Lille: season averages side by side
| Monaco | Per match this season | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.65 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 11.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 5.5 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 76 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 51% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 62
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 80% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 68% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monaco vs LOSC Lille prediction
LOSC Lille should have more of the ball; Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.40 for Monaco and 1.11 for LOSC Lille - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%. Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Monaco 1-0 LOSC Lille
Monaco vs LOSC Lille betting tips
- Tip 1: Monaco win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.50 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
Monaco vs LOSC Lille: questions and answers
When is Monaco vs LOSC Lille?
Monaco vs LOSC Lille is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Monaco vs LOSC Lille played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, Monaco's home ground.
Who will win Monaco vs LOSC Lille?
Monaco are the favourites: Monaco 43%, draw 28%, LOSC Lille 29%. Our prediction is Monaco 1-0 LOSC Lille.
Who is the player to watch in Monaco vs LOSC Lille?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs LOSC Lille?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.