Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-17
Napoli welcome Bodø / Glimt to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Napoli have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bodø / Glimt have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Napoli are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 23% and Bodø / Glimt at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.92, Bodø / Glimt 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Bodø / Glimt: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Bodø / Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | – |
| 16.7 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.7 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 67
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 67
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 63
- LW · Winger Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.40 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.37 / 90 | 92% |
| Through balls | 0.23 / 90 | 87% |
| Dispossessed | 0.69 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.92 for Napoli and 1.40 for Bodø / Glimt - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Bodø / Glimt
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Napoli are the favourites: Napoli 49%, draw 23%, Bodø / Glimt 28%. Our prediction is Napoli 2-1 Bodø / Glimt.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.