VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart · updated 2026-10-09
VfB Stuttgart host Atlético de Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at MHPArena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites at 53%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.41, Atlético de Madrid 2.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maximilian Mittelstädt as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 77).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.59 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 3.36 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 3.62 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
Atlético de Madrid concede only 1.0 goals a match this season (1.05 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a attacking wing-back like Maximilian Mittelstädt.
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| VfB Stuttgart | Per match this season | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 2.15 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.5 | On target | 6.4 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 57.1 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; VfB Stuttgart in its domestic league; Atlético de Madrid in its domestic league.
Players to watch
VfB Stuttgart
- Maximilian Mittelstädt defender · rating 7.91 · 4 apps
- Josha Vagnoman midfielder · rating 7.35 · 4 apps
- Jeff Chabot defender · rating 7.03 · 4 apps
Atlético de Madrid
- Kang-in Lee forward · rating 7.38 · 7 apps
- Álex Baena midfielder · rating 7.32 · 7 apps
- Alejandro Grimaldo defender · rating 7.22 · 6 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.