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Porto vs PSV: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-10-09

Porto host PSV in the Champions League on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Estádio Do Dragão. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes PSV slight favourites at 37%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.4 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Porto34%fair odds 2.97
Draw29%fair odds 3.41
PSV37%fair odds 2.70

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (1 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

PortoPer match this seasonPSV
1Matches1
0.0Goals scored1.0
2.0Goals conceded1.0
0.30Expected goals (xG)0.52
5.0Shots10.0
0.0On target2.0
36.0Possession %54.0
0%Clean sheets %0%
0%Both teams scored %100%
2.0Corners3.0
1.0Yellow cards3.0
6.60Average rating6.86

Averages per match from Sportmonks.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.