Liverpool vs Villarreal: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool · updated 2026-10-09
Liverpool host Villarreal in the Champions League on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Anfield. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Liverpool favourites at 45%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Liverpool 1.79, Villarreal 1.45.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Alberto Moleiro as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 79, defensive 46).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.47 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Key passes: 3.50 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.88 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
Liverpool concede only 0.8 goals a match this season (1.32 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a creative winger like Alberto Moleiro.
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Liverpool | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.28 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.34 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.6 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 61.9 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Liverpool in its domestic league; Villarreal in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Dominik Szoboszlai midfielder · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Jérémy Jacquet defender · rating 7.29 · 5 apps
- Cody Gakpo midfielder · rating 7.26 · 5 apps
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth defender · rating 7.43 · 3 apps
- Alberto Moleiro midfielder · rating 7.31 · 7 apps
- Péter Gulácsi goalkeeper · rating 7.30 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
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- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.