Napoli vs Roma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-17
Napoli welcome Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Napoli have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Roma have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Napoli at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.27, Roma 1.63.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 18.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Napoli vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.26 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 18.7 |
| 5.6 | On target | 6.2 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 53.7 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 7.10 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Kevin De Bruyne AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 67 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Roma
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Roma prediction
Roma should have more of the ball; Napoli are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.27 for Napoli and 1.63 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Napoli 1-2 Roma
Napoli vs Roma betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
Napoli vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Roma?
Napoli vs Roma is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Napoli vs Roma played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Roma?
Roma are the favourites: Napoli 29%, draw 26%, Roma 45%. Our prediction is Napoli 1-2 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Roma?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.