Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-11
Inter welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
Inter have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 3.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 80% win rate. Fiorentina have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 15% and Fiorentina at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter 3.01, Fiorentina 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 62.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.64 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Inter vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Inter | Per match this season | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 2.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.64 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | 1.44 |
| 22.5 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 7.2 | On target | 5.2 |
| 62.3 | Possession % | 46.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 7.09 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Inter
- Manuel Akanji CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 66 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Alieu Njie WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.28 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.87 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 84% |
| Goals | 0.93 / 90 | 83% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
Inter should have more of the ball, with Fiorentina likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Inter work the ball wide and cross; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 3.01 for Inter and 1.17 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 66%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter 3-1 Fiorentina
Inter vs Fiorentina betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter to win 74% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 79% by the model, 4.18 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
Inter vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter vs Fiorentina is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Inter vs Fiorentina played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter's home ground.
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter are the favourites: Inter 74%, draw 15%, Fiorentina 11%. Our prediction is Inter 3-1 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.