Genoa vs Venezia Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova · updated 2026-10-11
Genoa welcome Venezia to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Genoa have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Venezia have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Genoa are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Venezia at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Genoa 1.67, Venezia 1.24.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Venezia: form and key numbers
In style Venezia keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Genoa vs Venezia: season averages side by side
| Genoa | Per match this season | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.6 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.2 | On target | 4.4 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Players to watch
Genoa
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
- Djibril Sow CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Press-resistant (top 14% of his position)
Venezia
- John Yeboah SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
- Gianluca Busio DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård, 26 · Genoa · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62
Leo Østigård, 26, plays as a centre-back for Genoa in Serie A. Strongest for his role in blocked shots and aerial duels won. Weakest in long balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 62
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked shots | 2.09 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.49 / 90 | 88% |
| Dribbled past | 0.17 / 90 | 84% |
| Duels won | 5.58 / 90 | 81% |
| Tackles | 1.74 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Blocks shots, Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past.
- What Leo Østigård is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Leo Østigård's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Genoa vs Venezia prediction
Venezia should have more of the ball, with Genoa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.67 for Genoa and 1.24 for Venezia - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 58%. Genoa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Genoa 2-1 Venezia
Genoa vs Venezia betting tips
- Tip 1: Genoa win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
Genoa vs Venezia: questions and answers
When is Genoa vs Venezia?
Genoa vs Venezia is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Genoa vs Venezia played?
At Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Genoa's home ground.
Who will win Genoa vs Venezia?
Genoa are the favourites: Genoa 47%, draw 25%, Venezia 28%. Our prediction is Genoa 2-1 Venezia.
Who is the player to watch in Genoa vs Venezia?
Leo Østigård of Genoa: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Venezia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.