Lazio vs Parma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-10
Lazio welcome Parma to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Lazio have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate. Parma have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lazio are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 26% and Parma at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lazio 1.65, Parma 0.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Parma: form and key numbers
In style Parma are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.82 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 8.2 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Lazio vs Parma: season averages side by side
| Lazio | Per match this season | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 8.2 |
| 3.8 | On target | 2.8 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Reda Belahyane DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Parma
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 16% of his position)
- Emanuele Valeri LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 50 · Creator, Crosser (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 64
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.40 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.22 / 90 | 84% |
| Big chances created | 0.60 / 90 | 82% |
| Fouls won | 1.81 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Big-chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lazio vs Parma prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball; Parma go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.65 for Lazio and 0.83 for Parma - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 46%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lazio 1-0 Parma
Lazio vs Parma betting tips
- Tip 1: Lazio to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.48 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (45%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
Lazio vs Parma: questions and answers
When is Lazio vs Parma?
Lazio vs Parma is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Lazio vs Parma played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Lazio's home ground.
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
Lazio are the favourites: Lazio 56%, draw 26%, Parma 18%. Our prediction is Lazio 1-0 Parma.
Who is the player to watch in Lazio vs Parma?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Parma?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.