Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-11
Atalanta welcome Frosinone to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Atalanta have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Frosinone have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Atalanta 37%, the draw 26%, Frosinone 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.44, Frosinone 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone are happy without the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 2.25 conceded (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.50 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 2.25 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.8 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 42.7 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
- Gianluca Gaetano DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 26% of his position)
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 13% of his position)
- Giorgi Kvernadze LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 59 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgio Cittadini
Giorgio Cittadini, 24 · Frosinone · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65
Giorgio Cittadini, 24, plays as a centre-back for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in interceptions and tackles. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 65
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 5.04 / 90 | 100% |
| Tackles | 4.29 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 8.82 / 90 | 99% |
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 92% |
| Clearances | 8.07 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Ball-winner, Duel winner.
- What Giorgio Cittadini is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgio Cittadini's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction
Atalanta should have more of the ball, with Frosinone likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Frosinone work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.44 for Atalanta and 1.43 for Frosinone - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-1 Frosinone
Atalanta vs Frosinone betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
Atalanta vs Frosinone: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Atalanta vs Frosinone is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Atalanta vs Frosinone played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
It is close: Atalanta 37%, draw 26%, Frosinone 37%. Our prediction is Atalanta 1-1 Frosinone.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Giorgio Cittadini of Frosinone: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.