NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-10-09
NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Goffertstadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Levski Sofia slight favourites at 34%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 32% and expects about 2.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.02, Levski Sofia 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 34% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.31 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.4 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 53.1 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; NEC Nijmegen in its domestic league; Levski Sofia in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.