OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Pankritio Stadio, Heraklion · updated 2026-10-09
OFI host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Pankritio Stadio. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes OFI favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: OFI 1.43, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza, 20 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · AMF · Shadow striker
Moneyball Scout picks Ibrahim Maza as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 79, defensive 56).
- Shots: 4.25 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of attacking midfielders
- Successful dribbles: 2.25 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of attacking midfielders
- Key passes: 3.25 per 90 minutes, better than 87% of attacking midfielders
OFI concede only 0.0 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a shadow striker like Ibrahim Maza.
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Dribbler, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| OFI | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 0.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.53 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 4.7 | On target | 6.3 |
| 40.7 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 100% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 9.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Bayer 04 Leverkusen in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García midfielder · rating 7.67 · 4 apps
- Miguel Gutiérrez defender · rating 7.65 · 4 apps
- Patrik Schick forward · rating 7.45 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.