OH Leuven vs Mechelen Prediction and Betting Tips | Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11
Belgian Pro League · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 17:15 UTC · King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee · updated 2026-10-25
OH Leuven welcome Mechelen to King Power at Den Dreef in Heverlee in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:15 UTC.
OH Leuven have played 9 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Mechelen have played 8 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, OH Leuven are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Mechelen at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.62, Mechelen 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
OH Leuven: form and key numbers
In style OH Leuven play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 2.03 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.1).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Mechelen: form and key numbers
In style Mechelen play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
OH Leuven vs Mechelen: season averages side by side
| OH Leuven | Per match this season | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 2.03 | xG conceded | 1.62 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 2.8 | On target | 3.1 |
| 46.9 | Possession % | 47.1 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
OH Leuven
- Roggerio Nyakossi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 3% of his position)
- Siebe Schrijvers CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Mechelen
- Mike Eerdhuijzen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Myron van Brederode LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 51 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil, 28 · OH Leuven · RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 62
Óscar Gil, 28, plays as a full-back for OH Leuven in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in interceptions and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 62
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 52
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.13 / 90 | 92% |
| Duels won | 6.79 / 90 | 85% |
| Tackles | 3.20 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.15 / 90 | 82% |
| Key passes | 1.20 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Duel winner, Ball-winner.
- What Óscar Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
OH Leuven vs Mechelen prediction
OH Leuven should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.62 for OH Leuven and 1.36 for Mechelen - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. OH Leuven have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: OH Leuven 2-1 Mechelen
OH Leuven vs Mechelen betting tips
- Tip 1: OH Leuven win or draw (double chance) 68% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.98 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Belgian Pro League previews
- Club Brugge vs Sint-Truiden Sunday 25 October 2026
- Gent vs Anderlecht Sunday 25 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Sunday 25 October 2026
- Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge Friday 30 October 2026
- Mechelen vs Genk Saturday 31 October 2026
- Standard Liège vs KV Kortrijk Saturday 31 October 2026
- SK Beveren vs Union Saint-Gilloise Saturday 31 October 2026
- Anderlecht vs Westerlo Saturday 31 October 2026
OH Leuven vs Mechelen: questions and answers
When is OH Leuven vs Mechelen?
OH Leuven vs Mechelen is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:15 UTC, in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11.
Where is OH Leuven vs Mechelen played?
At King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee, OH Leuven's home ground.
Who will win OH Leuven vs Mechelen?
OH Leuven are the favourites: OH Leuven 43%, draw 26%, Mechelen 32%. Our prediction is OH Leuven 2-1 Mechelen.
Who is the player to watch in OH Leuven vs Mechelen?
Óscar Gil of OH Leuven: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in OH Leuven vs Mechelen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.