Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-10-11
Olympique Marseille welcome Le Havre to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Olympique Marseille have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Le Havre have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Marseille are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Le Havre at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 1.65, Le Havre 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.9).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre: season averages side by side
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | 1.58 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.5 |
| 56.4 | Possession % | 49.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 12% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 15% of his position)
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Djibril Ouziad RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Duel winner, Crosser (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 67
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 87% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 83% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 82% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball; Olympique Marseille like to take players on; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.65 for Olympique Marseille and 1.34 for Le Havre - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Olympique Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Olympique Marseille 2-1 Le Havre
Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre betting tips
- Tip 1: Olympique Marseille win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre: questions and answers
When is Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre?
Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Olympique Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre?
Olympique Marseille are the favourites: Olympique Marseille 44%, draw 25%, Le Havre 31%. Our prediction is Olympique Marseille 2-1 Le Havre.
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.