Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-10-09
Olympique Marseille host Olympiacos F.C. in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stade Vélodrome. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Olympique Marseille slight favourites at 41%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 1.43, Olympiacos F.C. 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Emerson as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 58, defensive 47).
- Passes: 59.39 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of full-backs
- Expected assists (est.): 0.16 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of full-backs
- Accurate crosses: 0.81 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of full-backs
Olympiacos F.C. score 0.5 goals a match this season from 0.85 expected: stopping them runs through Emerson.
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Olympiacos F.C. |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.2 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.5 |
| 56.4 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Olympique Marseille in its domestic league; Olympiacos F.C. in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- Amine Gouiri forward · rating 7.61 · 5 apps
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Jeffrey de Lange goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
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- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.