Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)), Levkosía · updated 2026-10-09
Omonia Nicosia host Benfica in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)). On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Benfica favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.02, Benfica 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Omonia Nicosia | Per match this season | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 4.4 | On target | 6.4 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.