Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn · updated 2026-10-17
Paderborn welcome Hamburger SV to Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Paderborn have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Hamburger SV have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paderborn are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Hamburger SV at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paderborn 1.61, Hamburger SV 1.10.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Paderborn: form and key numbers
In style Paderborn are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV: season averages side by side
| Paderborn | Per match this season | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.0 | On target | 3.7 |
| 46.3 | Possession % | 39.5 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
Paderborn
- Nahuel Noll GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Laurin Curda RMF · Two-way wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 13% of his position)
Hamburger SV
- Sebastiaan Bornauw CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 10% of his position)
- Jordan Torunarigha CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 47 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tjark Scheller
Tjark Scheller, 24 · Paderborn · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62
Tjark Scheller, 24, plays as a centre-back for Paderborn in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and blocked shots. Weakest in long balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 62
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 6.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 1.18 / 90 | 84% |
| Tackles | 2.19 / 90 | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.86 / 90 | 78% |
| Clearances | 6.22 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Blocks shots, Ball-winner.
- What Tjark Scheller is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tjark Scheller's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV prediction
Paderborn should have more of the ball; Paderborn are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.61 for Paderborn and 1.10 for Hamburger SV - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 54%. Paderborn have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paderborn 1-0 Hamburger SV
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV betting tips
- Tip 1: Paderborn win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Paderborn vs Hamburger SV: questions and answers
When is Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is Paderborn vs Hamburger SV played?
At Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, Paderborn's home ground.
Who will win Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Paderborn are the favourites: Paderborn 48%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 25%. Our prediction is Paderborn 1-0 Hamburger SV.
Who is the player to watch in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Tjark Scheller of Paderborn: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.