Porto vs PSV Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-10-17
Porto welcome PSV to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Porto have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. PSV have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Porto 34%, the draw 27%, PSV 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Porto 1.33, PSV 1.44.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Porto: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.68 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 2.5 on target.
- Possession: 40.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
PSV: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Porto vs PSV: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 2.5 | On target | 3.5 |
| 40.0 | Possession % | 55.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 1.5 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.57 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Porto vs PSV prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.33 for Porto and 1.44 for PSV - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Porto 1-1 PSV
Porto vs PSV betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.78 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Porto vs PSV: questions and answers
When is Porto vs PSV?
Porto vs PSV is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Porto vs PSV played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs PSV?
It is close: Porto 34%, draw 27%, PSV 39%. Our prediction is Porto 1-1 PSV.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs PSV?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.