Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-09
Napoli host Bodø / Glimt in the Champions League on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Napoli favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 2.08, Bodø / Glimt 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Amir Rrahmani
Amir Rrahmani, 32 · Napoli · CB · Stopper
Moneyball Scout picks Amir Rrahmani as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 27, defensive 64).
- Duels won: 8.00 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of centre-backs
- Aerial duels won: 5.00 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-backs
- Tackles: 2.20 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of centre-backs
Bodø / Glimt score 2.4 goals a match this season from 1.85 expected: stopping them runs through Amir Rrahmani.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Ball-winner.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Napoli | Per match this season | Bodø / Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.0 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 53.2 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Napoli in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Napoli
- Kevin De Bruyne midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Stanislav Lobotka midfielder · rating 7.13 · 5 apps
- Amir Rrahmani defender · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.