Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid · updated 2026-10-17
Rayo Vallecano welcome Celta de Vigo to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Rayo Vallecano have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Celta de Vigo have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Rayo Vallecano 35%, the draw 28%, Celta de Vigo 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.24, Celta de Vigo 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Celta de Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.91 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match this season | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.91 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 9.9 |
| 4.6 | On target | 3.3 |
| 48.7 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Creator, Ball-winner (top 16% of his position)
Celta de Vigo
- Javi Rueda RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 13% of his position)
- Ionuț Radu GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
- SS · Second striker Competent, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 84% |
| Shots | 3.64 / 90 | 80% |
| Key passes | 1.53 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo prediction
Celta de Vigo should have more of the ball; Rayo Vallecano go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.24 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.29 for Celta de Vigo - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta de Vigo
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.52 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo?
It is close: Rayo Vallecano 35%, draw 28%, Celta de Vigo 37%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta de Vigo.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
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