Roma vs Monza Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 13
Serie A · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-11-15
Roma welcome Monza to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Roma have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 73% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 63% win rate. Monza have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Monza at 10%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Roma 2.95, Monza 1.08.
- Over 2.5 goals: 77% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 19.4 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 82% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Roma vs Monza: season averages side by side
| Roma | Per match this season | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 2.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.55 |
| 19.4 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 6.5 | On target | 5.5 |
| 57.2 | Possession % | 44.2 |
| 55% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 82% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 7.07 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Roma
- Donyell Malen CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
- Manu Koné CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
Monza
- Gustavo Varela CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Accurate shooter (top 19% of his position)
- Adam Bakoune RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Crosser, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé, 23 · Roma · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 79
Matías Soulé, 23, plays as a winger for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and accurate crosses. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 79
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.43 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.42 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.31 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 2.48 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Crosser, Dribbler.
- What Matías Soulé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matías Soulé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Roma vs Monza prediction
Roma should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.95 for Roma and 1.08 for Monza - with over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 63%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Roma 3-1 Monza
Roma vs Monza: what the numbers say
- 1. Roma win, the likeliest result 75% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 57% by the model, 4.03 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Roma vs Monza: questions and answers
When is Roma vs Monza?
Roma vs Monza is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 13.
Where is Roma vs Monza played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Roma's home ground.
Who will win Roma vs Monza?
Roma are the favourites: Roma 75%, draw 15%, Monza 10%. Our prediction is Roma 3-1 Monza.
Who is the player to watch in Roma vs Monza?
Matías Soulé of Roma: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Roma vs Monza?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 77%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.