Scotland vs North Macedonia Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League B · Saturday 14 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Scotland welcome North Macedonia in UEFA Nations League B action on Saturday 14 November 2026.
Scotland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. North Macedonia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Scotland are clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 19% and North Macedonia at 11%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.5 goals: 53%.
Scotland vs North Macedonia: season averages side by side
| Scotland | Per match | North Macedonia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 1.46 | Goals | 0.75 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 12.8 | Tackles | 20.0 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 30 and 8 measured matches.
Scotland vs North Macedonia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Scotland and 1.23 for North Macedonia - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Scotland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Scotland 2-1 North Macedonia
Scotland vs North Macedonia: what the numbers say
- 1. Scotland win, the likeliest result 70% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League B previews
- Slovenia vs Switzerland Saturday 14 November 2026
- Kosovo vs Israel Saturday 14 November 2026
- Georgia vs Hungary Sunday 15 November 2026
- Romania vs Poland Sunday 15 November 2026
- Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Sunday 15 November 2026
- Austria vs Republic of Ireland Sunday 15 November 2026
Scotland vs North Macedonia: questions and answers
When is Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Scotland vs North Macedonia is on Saturday 14 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Scotland are the favourites: Scotland 70%, draw 19%, North Macedonia 11%. Our prediction is Scotland 2-1 North Macedonia.
How many goals will there be in Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.