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Slovenia vs Switzerland Prediction and Stats

Slovenia welcome Switzerland in UEFA Nations League B action on Saturday 14 November 2026.

Slovenia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Switzerland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.

On the pre-match consensus, Switzerland are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 26% and Slovenia at 18%.

Win probabilities

Slovenia18%home win
Draw26%draw
Switzerland56%away win

The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.5 goals: 46%.

Slovenia vs Switzerland: season averages side by side

SloveniaPer matchSwitzerland
0.83Expected goals (xG)1.62
1.21xG conceded0.90
0.69Goals2.10
10.5Shots10.6
13.0Tackles14.2
13.6Fouls12.1
1.5Yellow cards0.9

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 30 measured matches.

Slovenia vs Switzerland prediction

Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Slovenia and 1.23 for Switzerland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Switzerland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.

Prediction: Slovenia 1-2 Switzerland

Slovenia vs Switzerland: what the numbers say

  1. 1. Switzerland win, the likeliest result 56% on the pre-match consensus
  2. 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
  3. 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

Moneyball's reading

The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Follow Slovenia vs Switzerland live

More UEFA Nations League B previews

Slovenia vs Switzerland: questions and answers

When is Slovenia vs Switzerland?

Slovenia vs Switzerland is on Saturday 14 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.

Who will win Slovenia vs Switzerland?

Switzerland are the favourites: Slovenia 18%, draw 26%, Switzerland 56%. Our prediction is Slovenia 1-2 Switzerland.

How many goals will there be in Slovenia vs Switzerland?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.