Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League B · Sunday 15 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Sweden welcome Bosnia and Herzegovina in UEFA Nations League B action on Sunday 15 November 2026.
Sweden have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Bosnia and Herzegovina have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Sweden are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 23% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 18%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.5 goals: 57%.
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: season averages side by side
| Sweden | Per match | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.89 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 1.88 | Goals | 1.46 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 11.3 | Tackles | 15.3 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 16.3 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 16 and 14 measured matches.
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Sweden and 1.23 for Bosnia and Herzegovina - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Sweden have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sweden 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: what the numbers say
- 1. Sweden win, the likeliest result 59% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League B previews
- Scotland vs North Macedonia Saturday 14 November 2026
- Slovenia vs Switzerland Saturday 14 November 2026
- Kosovo vs Israel Saturday 14 November 2026
- Georgia vs Hungary Sunday 15 November 2026
- Romania vs Poland Sunday 15 November 2026
- Austria vs Republic of Ireland Sunday 15 November 2026
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: questions and answers
When is Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is on Sunday 15 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Sweden are the favourites: Sweden 59%, draw 23%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 18%. Our prediction is Sweden 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.