Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Merkur Arena, Graz · updated 2026-10-09
Sturm Graz host Olympique Marseille in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Merkur Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Sturm Graz favourites at 59%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.00, Olympique Marseille 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Emerson as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 58, defensive 47).
- Passes: 59.39 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of full-backs
- Expected assists (est.): 0.16 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of full-backs
- Accurate crosses: 0.81 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of full-backs
Sturm Graz score 1.5 goals a match this season from 1.62 expected: stopping them runs through Emerson.
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Sturm Graz | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| – | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.8 |
| 36.8 | Possession % | 56.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Sturm Graz in its domestic league; Olympique Marseille in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- Amine Gouiri forward · rating 7.61 · 5 apps
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Jeffrey de Lange goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.