Torino vs Lazio Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 13
Serie A · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino · updated 2026-11-14
Torino welcome Lazio to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino in Serie A Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Torino have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lazio have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 82% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lazio are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 26% and Torino at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Torino 1.10, Lazio 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Torino: form and key numbers
In style Torino are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Lazio: form and key numbers
In style Lazio keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.7).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Torino vs Lazio: season averages side by side
| Torino | Per match this season | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 3.5 | On target | 4.7 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 53.6 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Torino
- Ardian Ismajli CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Saúl Coco CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 29% of his position)
- Nuno Tavares LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 75
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.40 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 87% |
| Big chances created | 0.53 / 90 | 87% |
| Key passes | 2.45 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.07 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Torino vs Lazio prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball; Torino are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Lazio press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.10 for Torino and 1.65 for Lazio - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 55%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Torino 1-2 Lazio
Torino vs Lazio: what the numbers say
- 1. Lazio unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Torino vs Lazio: questions and answers
When is Torino vs Lazio?
Torino vs Lazio is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 13.
Where is Torino vs Lazio played?
At Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Torino's home ground.
Who will win Torino vs Lazio?
Lazio are the favourites: Torino 25%, draw 26%, Lazio 49%. Our prediction is Torino 1-2 Lazio.
Who is the player to watch in Torino vs Lazio?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Torino vs Lazio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.