Troyes vs Le Mans Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-10-17
Troyes welcome Le Mans to Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas in Troyes in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Troyes have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Le Mans have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Troyes 40%, the draw 24%, Le Mans 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.70, Le Mans 1.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Troyes vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match this season | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 2.8 | On target | 4.1 |
| 38.8 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 7.3 | Corners | 2.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.71 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 18% of his position)
- Jérémy Le Douaron CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
Le Mans
- Lucas Calodat LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 11% of his position)
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Maronnier
Lucas Maronnier, 26 · Troyes · RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68
Lucas Maronnier, 26, plays as a wing-back for Troyes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and accurate crosses. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 69
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 68
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.46 / 90 | 89% |
| Tackles | 2.74 / 90 | 74% |
| Key passes | 2.19 / 90 | 73% |
| Duels won | 6.02 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Crosser.
- What Lucas Maronnier is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Maronnier's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Troyes vs Le Mans prediction
Le Mans should have more of the ball; Troyes are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.70 for Troyes and 1.61 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Troyes 1-1 Le Mans
Troyes vs Le Mans betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice Sunday 18 October 2026
Troyes vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Le Mans?
Troyes vs Le Mans is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Troyes vs Le Mans played?
At Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Le Mans?
It is close: Troyes 40%, draw 24%, Le Mans 36%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Le Mans?
Lucas Maronnier of Troyes: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.