TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-10-09
TSG Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at PreZero Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Beşiktaş favourites at 60%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 0.85, Beşiktaş 1.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak, 26 · TSG Hoffenheim · CB · Box defender
Moneyball Scout picks Ozan Kabak as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 76, defensive 70).
- Aerial duels won: 6.45 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of centre-backs
- Duels won: 7.74 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-backs
- Clearances: 8.77 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-backs
Beşiktaş score 1.7 goals a match this season from 1.45 expected: stopping them runs through Ozan Kabak.
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Box defender.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | – |
| 19.0 | Shots | 17.9 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 62.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 71% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 14% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; TSG Hoffenheim in its domestic league.
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak defender · rating 7.21 · 4 apps
- Adam Daghim midfielder · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Adam Hlozek forward · rating 7.08 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.